000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 4N100W 5N120W 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FOLLOWING 
POINTS 8.3N103.2W AND 6.5N130W AND 4.7N133W.

...DISCUSSION....

UPPER LEVELS...
N OF 25N WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED.  THIS 
AREA IS CLOUD FREE AND DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ TO 12N140W.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED 
WITHIN THIS AREA WEST OF 100W. 

THE REGION BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE IS A WEAK 
TROUGH. 

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 107W.  LARGE...10 TO 
15 FT...NORTHWEST SWELLS COVER MOST OF THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS WEST OF A LINE 30N130W TO 
10N110W.

CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 97W.

GAP WINDS...
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE 
TO 20-30 IN ABOUT 48 HRS PER GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OVER TEXAS AND INTO NRN MEXICO IN ABOUT 
36-48 HRS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURGE OF N WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A MINIMAL GALE EVENT JUST BEGUN AND 
INCREASING TO 30-45 KT IN 18 HRS AND INCREASING FURTHER REACHING 
STORM STRENGTH (40-50 KT) IN 24 HRS WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE BY 
48 HRS AS SUGGESTED BY 925 MB STABILITY NAM AND GFS MODEL FIELDS.

$$
LL