000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080416 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JAN 8 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 4N90W 5N100W 5N110W 6N120W 5N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-6.5N BETWEEN 131W-135.5W. ...DISCUSSION.... A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 378133W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THIS HIGH HAS RELAXED SOME OVER THE PAST 12-18 HRS...HOWEVER LARGE RESULTANT NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HRS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SEWD EXTENDS FROM NRN TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES WSW TO 31N120W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 25N AND E OF 125W AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE PREVAILING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SW TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS NE FROM 19N121W THROUGH 22.5N116W THEN ENE ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INLAND ACROSS NRN MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS SE FROM THE JET STREAM TO A LINE FROM ACAPULCO SW TO 4N106W AND W FROM THERE TO 5N120W. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 6N108W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NE ABOUT 17 KT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME IS LOCATED NEAR 22N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH 19N118W TO 16N114W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IS OCCURRING WITHIN 800 NM SE OF THIS CIRCULATION. AN AREA OF MOSTLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 113W-125W...AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE SW OF THIS CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR OCCURRING S OF 19N AND W OF 125W. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN S OF 19N W OF 120W HAS BECOME PRETTY MUCH ZONAL. SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EVIDENT N OF 24N W OF 132W WITH A CREST EXTENDING N TO 32N136W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WRN PART OF THE REGION NEAR 19N138W MOVING E 20 KT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO 13N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING ON THE ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 128W-136W. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS N TO S JUST E CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO NEAR 18N96W SE TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND REACHING SE TO 12N93W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY NE OF A LINE FROM 15N100W TO 11N92W TO 9N86W. AS A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR FOUND HERE...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 270-300 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 97W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WWD ARE ACROSS HONDURAS AND NRN NICARAGUA IN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. GAP WINDS... NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30 IN ABOUT 48 HRS PER GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD. STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OVER TEXAS AND INTO NRN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURGE OF N WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A MINIMAL GALE EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN ABOUT 06 HRS AND INCREASING TO 30-45 KT IN 18HRS AND INCREASING FURTHER REACHING STORM STRENGTH (40-50 KT) IN 24 HRS WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE BY 48 HRS AS SUGGESTED BY 925 MB STABILITY NAM AND GFS MODEL FIELDS. $$ AGUIRRE