000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072207 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JAN 7 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 6N100W 6N110W 4N120W 2N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 106W-118W. ...DISCUSSION.... A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 37N134W IS MOVING NE 15 KT. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. ALTHOUGH IT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN PLAY MAKER IN INFLUENCING WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THIS HIGH HAS RELAXED SOME OVER THE PAST 12-18 HRS ALLOWING FOR GALE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH OVER THE N/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE REGION. SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN 18 HRS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SEWD EXTENDS FROM NRN TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES WSW TO 31N122W TO 29.5N124W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 25N AND E OF 125W AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE PREVAILING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SW TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS NE FROM 19N121W THROUGH 22.5N116W THEN ENE ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INLAND ACROSS NRN MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS SE FROM THE JET STREAM TO A LINE FROM ACAPULCO SW TO 4N106W AND W FROM THERE TO 5N120W. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 6N108W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NE ABOUT 17 KT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME IS LOCATED NEAR 21N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH 18N119W TO 16N116W TO NEAR 13N113W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IS OCCURRING WITHIN 800 NM SE OF THIS CIRCULATION. AN AREA OF MOSTLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 118.5W-125W...AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE SW OF THIS CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR OCCURRING S OF 19N AND W OF 125W. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN S OF 19N W OF 120W HAS BECOME PRETTY MUCH ZONAL. SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EVIDENT N OF 22N W OF 132W WITH A CREST EXTENDING N TO 32N136W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS MOVED IN THE WRN PART OF THE REGION NEAR 19N140W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH 16N142W TO 12N144W. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING ON THE ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 132W-138W. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS N TO S JUST E CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE MEXICO NEAR 18N96W SE TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND REACHING SE TO 12N93W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY NE OF A LINE FROM 15N100W TO 11N92W TO 9N86W. AS A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR FOUND HERE...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 270-300 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 97W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE W ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. GAP WINDS... NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA...THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT IN 48 HRS PER GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELD. STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OVER TEXAS AND INTO NRN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURGE OF N WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A MINIMAL GALE EVENT EXPECTED HERE IN 12 HRS AND INCREASING TO 30-45 KT IN 24 HRS AND FURTHER INCREASING TO STORM STRENGTH (35-50 KT) IN ABOUT 30 HRS WITH LITTLE CHANGE GOING INTO 48 HRS AS SUGGESTED BY NWP MODELS. $$ AGUIRRE