000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 7 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 4N93W 7N120W 3N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 
5N98W 8N115W 8N122W 3N140W. 

...DISCUSSION....

A LONG WAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE NE PAC TO THE E OF 150W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N130W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 27N117W. A SECOND 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 28N137W. TO THE S...AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO ALONG 31N101W 25N120W 28N132W. AN 
UPPER CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CUT OFF AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED 
AT 20N125W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 31N106W 28N120W 31N131W. 

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 13N100W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED UNDER ITS RIDGE WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE 
ADVECTED NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 18N110W 30N95W.
   
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 36N133W. A MINIMAL GALE 
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE GULF CALIFORNIA AND IS 
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN.  

GAP WINDS...
A SECONDARY SURGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE A PREVIOUSLY STALLED 
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRES IN 
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SURGE S THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNSET TODAY. THE NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE BY SUNRISE MON AND TO STORM FORCE BY 
SUNSET MON.    

STRONG ELY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND SURGE INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. CURRENTLY ENE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT MON NIGHT.

$$
NELSON