000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 6 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N90W 7N100W 6N110W 5N120W 3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-110W. ...DISCUSSION.... A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N136W IS MOVING SLOWLY E. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO TURN NE REACHING A POSITION NEAR 37N133W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1041 MB IN ABOUT 24 HRS. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAY MAKER IN INFLUENCING WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW WASHED OUT. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS RESULTED DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH IS CREATING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER A PORTION OF THE ELY TRADE WIND FLOW N OF 24N BETWEEN 118W-125W. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 12 HRS. SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN MEXICO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HRS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING SEWD EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO SW THROUGH 32N112W THROUGH 31N122W AND WNW TO 32N130W. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 24N AND E OF 133W AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IS PRESSING SWD WITH TIME. THE PREVAILING MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SW TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS ENE FROM 21N125W THROUGH 24N115W THEN CONTINUES MORE NE ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO ACROSS NRN MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS MUCH OF NRN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS SE FROM THE JET STREAM TO A LINE FROM ACAPULCO S TO 4N107W AND W FROM THERE TO 4N125W. A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 5N107W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNE ABOUT 17 KT IS LOCATED NEAR 18N127W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 13.5N124W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING WITHIN 800 NM SE OF THIS CIRCULATION. MOSTLY BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS SEEN FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 117W-127W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOUND THE W OF THIS CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR LOCATED FROM 10N-23N W OF 130W. THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN W OF 130W IS ANTICYCLONIC...AND BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED S OF 14N AND MORE AMPLIFIED N OF 19N W OF 136W IN RESPONSE TO SHARPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT W OF THE AREA ALONG 144W FROM 15N-23N. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NW TO SE ALONG THE E SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AND NW ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO AND AS FAR SE AS NRN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS NOTED E OF 110W OUTSIDE THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT OF THE DRY AIR FOUND HERE...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH ONOY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS E OF 103W. GAP WINDS... NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CONTINUE INTO 48 HRS. STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OVER TEXAS AND INTO NRN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36-48 HRS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURGE OF N WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A MINIMAL GALE EVENT EXPECTED HERE AND LASTING BEYOND 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE