000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060409 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JAN 6 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 6N90W 6N100W 6N110W 6N120W 3N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 111W-114W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-109W. ...DISCUSSION.... A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N137W IS MOVING SLOWLY E. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO TURN NE REACHING A POSITION NEAR 37N134W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1040 MB IN ABOUT 24 HRS. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT GREATLY AFFECTING WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW BECOMING FRACTURED FROM SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 21N120W TO 20N133W. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS RESULTED DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH IS CREATING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 118W-129W. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HRS. SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 18 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO RESULTING IN WINDS REACHING SIMILAR MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CLOSE TO 30 HRS. A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO FROM 29N110W TO 23N104.5W. IN CONTRAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PUSHING SEWD EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SEWD INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N116W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N124W. THIS SAME TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 26N AND E OF 130W AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOW OVER MEXICO. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS NNE FROM 20N128W THROUGH 24N120W THEN DIVES SEWD ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FIRST TROUGH THROUGH 22N113W 23N105W AND CONTINUING ENE THROUGH 21N100W AND ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE JET STREAM TO AS FAR S AS 5N. IT IS BEING CHANNELED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ENE ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE WRN PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG 135W FROM 19N-26N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE REGION EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 18N142W NW TO 22N145W AND APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NWD AS RIDGING FORMS JUST TO SE AND S. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW ABOUT 15-20 KT IS LOCATED NEAR 16N130W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 9N130W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING WITHIN 710 NM SE OF THIS CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 117W-126W. THIS SAME CIRCULATION IS HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE RIDGE CREATING THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 12N101W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 92W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THIS PART OF THE REGION AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060409 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JAN 6 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 6N90W 6N100W 6N110W 6N120W 3N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 111W-114W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-109W. ...DISCUSSION.... A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N137W IS MOVING SLOWLY E. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO TURN NE REACHING A POSITION NEAR 37N134W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1040 MB IN ABOUT 24 HRS. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT GREATLY AFFECTING WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW BECOMING FRACTURED FROM SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 21N120W TO 20N133W. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS RESULTED DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH IS CREATING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 118W-129W. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HRS. SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 18 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO RESULTING IN WINDS REACHING SIMILAR MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CLOSE TO 30 HRS. A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS MEXICO FROM 29N110W TO 23N104.5W. IN CONTRAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PUSHING SEWD EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SEWD INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N116W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N124W. THIS SAME TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 26N AND E OF 130W AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOW OVER MEXICO. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS NNE FROM 20N128W THROUGH 24N120W THEN DIVES SEWD ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FIRST TROUGH THROUGH 22N113W 23N105W AND CONTINUING ENE THROUGH 21N100W AND ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE JET STREAM TO AS FAR S AS 5N. IT IS BEING CHANNELED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ENE ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE WRN PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG 135W FROM 19N-26N. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE REGION EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 18N142W NW TO 22N145W AND APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NWD AS RIDGING FORMS JUST TO ITS SE AND S. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW ABOUT 15-20 KT IS LOCATED NEAR 16N130W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 9N130W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING WITHIN 710 NM SE OF THIS CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 117W-126W. THIS SAME CIRCULATION IS HELPING TO CARVE OUT THE RIDGE CREATING THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF THE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 12N101W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N E OF 92W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THIS PART OF THE REGION AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS AS STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ AGUIRRE