000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 6 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 6N90W 6N100W 7N110W 6N120W 6N130W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-84W AND ALSO BETWEEN
109W-112W.

...DISCUSSION....

A STRONG 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE 
REGION NEAR 36N140W IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE THEN SE TO NEAR 
36N135W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1042 MB IN 24 HRS. THIS HIGH IS 
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD WHICH EXTENDS FROM
EXTREME NW MEXICO SW ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CONTINUES WSW THROUGH 23120W TO 21N130W TO ABOUT 21N139W.
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION N OF 15N WITH GALE CONDITIONS OVER AN AREA OF THE 
TRADE WINDS N OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 120W-130W. THIS AREA OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS IS  FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HRS. SIMILAR 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NRN PORTION 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF MEXICO RESULTING IN WINDS OBTAINING GALE CONDITIONS
...IN ABOUT THE 25-35 KT FROM THE NW....THEN ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH IN 36 HRS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SW THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND CONTINUES SW TO 22N105W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH PUSHING SEWD EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SWWD INTO THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N118W TO 28N128W. THIS SAME TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. 
CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 26N AND E OF 130W AS 
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC TO THE S OF THIS 
TROUGH...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH NOW OVER MEXICO. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS NNE FROM 20N127.5W THROUGH 
23.5N121.5W THEN DIVES SEWD ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FIRST 
TROUGH THROUGH 22N113W 20.5N105W AND CONTINUING ENE THROUGH 
21N100W AND ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET STREAM IS 
ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. 
THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE JET STREAM TO AS FAR S AS 
8N. IT IS BEING CHANNELED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ENE 
ACROSS THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. A 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE WRN PORTION OF THE 
REGION ALONG 135W FROM 19N-26N. A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
IS W OF THE REGION ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM 16N144W NW TO 24N149W.

A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW ABOUT 
15-20 KT IS LOCATED NEAR 15N130W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 
9N130W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING WITHIN 710 NM SE OF 
THIS CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY BROKEN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 
119W-126W.

OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
EXTENDS ALONG 12N E OF 90W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THIS PART OF THE REGION. NE WINDS TO 
20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN
ABOUT 48 HRS AS STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN 
SEA.

$$
AGUIRRE