000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 5 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 6N95W 8N106W 5N120W 8N140W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
82W-92W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-125W AND W OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION....

NORTHWEST...
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS SURGING SE ACROSS THE N PART OF 
THE AREA FROM EXTREME NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 25N130W 25N140W. 
THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
37N142W WITH ENHANCED TRADES ALONG ITS SRN PERIPHERY. A 0308 UTC 
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT GALES HAVE BEGUN IN A SWATH 
EXTENDING NW OF A LINE FROM 30N118 TO 22N140W...AND THIS AREA 
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL LIKELY 
FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL 
MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS TO 30 KT FOR A FEW DAYS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...CONFLUENT FLOW CENTERED ALONG 30N/31N IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT FAIR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
REGION.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IS SETTING UP OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE 
NRN-MOST PARTS OF THE GULF AND WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE DAY AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. NW WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND 
SHOULD REACH GALE CRITERIA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT...LASTING 
FOR ABOUT 24 HRS.

TROPICS...
A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 14N130W WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING UP TO 800 NM TO ITS E. THIS IS 
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 115W-127W...AND THE S/SW WINDS ALOFT 
APPEAR TO HAVE PULLED THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY NWD IN THE AREA. A 
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW FROM 19N120W EWD 
INTO SRN MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA ARE FAIRLY VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
STILL A PATCH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 7N E OF 100W 
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS HONDURAS/GUATEMALA.

$$
BERG