000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050415
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 5 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N90W 6N100W 6N110W 7N120W 7N131W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-123W.

...DISCUSSION....

A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED WELL N OF THE 
REGION NEAR 37N145W IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE TO NEAR 38N138W 
WITH 1041 MB IN 24 HRS. THIS HIGH IS FOLLOWING A SURFACE COLD 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 32N123W TO 
28N130W WHERE IT THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING FRONT TO 28N140W.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST SWWD THROUGH 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-123W BY FRI 
MORNING. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
SWD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. SIMILAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 
ABOUT 36 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTERACTS WITH 
LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO RESULTING IN 
WINDS OBTAINING THESE CONDITIONS. THESE EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH JUST AFTER 48 HRS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SW THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
22N109W AS SEEN IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUICKLY 
MOVING EWD TOWARDS MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS NOTED N OF 18N AND E OF 
121W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 18N121W ENE 
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH 18N105W
THEN TURNS SHARPLY NE THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER ERN LOUISIANA.
THE JET STREAM IS ADVECTING EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS WITHIN 360-500 NM 
SE OF THE JET STREAM...AND IS BEING CHANNELED ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND NEWD WELL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND N/CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO WELL N AND NE FROM THERE. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE WRN PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG 
137W FROM 8N-19N. A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS W OF THE
REGION ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM 11N144W TO 17N147W...AND IS MOVING
EWD RATHER QUICKLY.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WNW ABOUT 15-20 KT 
IS CENTERED NEAR 14N130W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 8N132W. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OCCURRING WITHIN 480 NM SE OF THIS 
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 121W-123W...BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS SEEN EARLIER. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 24N127W. OVER THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS 
ALONG 13N E OF 99W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN 48 HRS BEFORE INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN.

$$
AGUIRRE