000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041551 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JAN 4 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS 4N77W 5N95W 7N105W 7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION.... STRONG 1042 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 38N149W CONTINUES TO SHIFT E TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER E...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST SWWD THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN TRADES BY THU NIGHT...MAINLY N OF 25N THEN SHIFTING S. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SW...HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN COUPLED WITH LOWER PRES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL ALSO GENERATE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY FRI NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...A MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N102W AND BEGINNING TO LIFT ENE. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SRN BAJA TO 14N130W. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N-20N W OF 120W WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO S/CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR EL SALVADOR AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF LOW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE STILL IN CONTROL E OF 98W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES ARE VIRTUALLY CLOUD-FREE N OF THE ITCZ. THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...POSSIBLY DUE TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GAP WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DUE TO THE ENHANCED GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. $$ MUNDELL