000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 4 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 7N110W 5N140W. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 7N108W 8N118W AND 7N124W.

...DISCUSSION....
A CUT OFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N108W. A NARROW TROUGH BEING SQUEEZED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CUT OFF LOW TO 
20N114W THENCE WESTWARD TO 16N130W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N127W TO 
25N140W. A SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH NEAR
12N130W TO 17N110W THENCE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS 5-8N IS HELPING ITCZ CONVECTION REMAIN 
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE.

AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 20N110W. THE 
QUIKSCAT DATA THIS EVENING SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN GAP WINDS 
BOTH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO COMPARED TO 
YESTERDAY. NE TRADES ARE ALSO DIMINISHING W OF 120W WITH THE BULK OF 
THE WIND REPORTS COMING IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. SO FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS OR SO FEW NOTEWORTHY HAZARDS ARE PRESENT EXCEPT FOR LINGERING 
SWELLS. BUT A MAJOR CHANGE IS COMING AFTER 24 HOURS. A STRONG 1042 
MB HIGH MOVES JUST N OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN NEAR GALE TRADE 
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 115W. MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE N OF 25N W OF 
120W. ALTHOUGH IT IS A MARGINAL EVENT WITH MOST OF THE WINDS LIKELY 
TO BE CLOSE TO 30 KT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 35 KT WINDS OUT THERE...
ENOUGH TO MERIT A GALE WARNING IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME. A COLD 
FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP DOWN THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...BRINGING 
25-30 KT WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO BOTH SIDES OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

$$
MUNDELL