000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N77W 4N100W 8N110W 8N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
120 NM WIDE 100W TO110W SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
200 NM WIDE 118W TO 123W AND 130W TO 133W.

...DISCUSSION....
A CUT OFF LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N109W AND A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS SW 
FROM THIS LOW TO 15N129W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N132W IS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 25-30N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH NEAR 12N130W TO 15N110W AND THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR JANUARY...
ANOTHER INDICATION OF AN ONGOING EL NINO EVENT. 

AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 20N110W. THE
QUIKSCAT DATA THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE CAUSING FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE TRADES ARE DIMINISHING A 
LITTLE W OF 120W. IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS A STRONG 1042 MB HIGH MOVES
JUST N OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE TRADE WINDS IN 
A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 115W. A COLD FRONT WILL 
ALSO SWEEP DOWN THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...BRINGING 25-30 KT 
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO BOTH SIDES OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.

$$
MUNDELL