000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 3N85W 9N116W 5N128W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
105W-111W...AND 118W-126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...

A VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE...WITH A SLIGHT SW TILT WITH 
HEIGHT...COVERS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 1027 
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N134W AND THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 27N144W. 
THIS IS PRODUCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR NOW N OF 25N WITH A 
FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING S OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM A STORM 
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRES 
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE EASTERLIES OVER THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA TO GALE FORCE BY LATE THU. 

A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SONORAN DESERT OF 
MEXICO...AND AN ATTACHED TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS SRN BAJA TO 
19N120W 17N135W BEING FORCED SWD BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER 
HIGH. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIES S OF 15N INTO THE 
DEEP TROPICS AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FEEDING SOME OF THIS 
MOISTURE INTO S/CENTRAL MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN 
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NRN MEXICO AS THIS MOISTURE IS LIFTED 
BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE E 
OF THE CUT-OFF LOW.

THE E PART OF THE PACIFIC IS MAINLY BEING INFLUENCED BY A STRONG 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS WWD ACROSS SE 
MEXICO TO 10N105W. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE 
ON A TRAJECTORY INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...KEEPING 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 97W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AS EVIDENCED BY 40 KT VECTORS IN LAST EVENING'S 
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL 
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER PAPAGAYO 
WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE GRADIENT 
REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

$$
BERG