000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 6N100W 7N118W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 109W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A CUT OFF LOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN U.S. IS CENTERED NEAR 29N111W. FURTHER WEST AN UPPER RIDGE 
IS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG 30N. OVER THE 
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC A WELL DEFINED SUBTROPICAL JET IS PRESENT JUST 
S OF 20N FROM 135W EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N134W
TO 18N108W. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N97W. QUIKSCAT 
WINDS THIS MORNING CONFIRMED WINDS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. WIND 
WAVES ARE ABOUT 10 TO 14 FT. THE NWW3 MODEL IS NOT DOING PARTICULARLY
WELL FOR THIS GALE WIND EVENT...CONSISTENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE WIND
OBSERVATIONS. WE ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE ANOTHER
12-24 HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND WED AFTERNOON. 
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. STRONG NE TRADE 
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREAS W OF 112W.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AFFECTING BAJA AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL ARRIVE THU EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS 
FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WEST 
COAST OF BAJA AND UP TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

$$
MUNDELL