000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 6N90W 7N100W 6N110W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
95W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 112W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER IS THE 
FOCAL POINT FOR A BROAD TROUGH WHICH LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 10N E OF 130W...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF MEXICO. A 
PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET FEEDS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
ALONG 22N WITH A SHARP EDGE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS...S OF WHICH 
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO S/CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES SW TO ANOTHER CUT-OFF SE OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS NEAR 13N150W...WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE 
FILTERING INTO THE AREA ACROSS 140W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N133W BUT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADES E 
OF 120W...WITH SOME AREAS UP TO 30 KT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A 
BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEN ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES 
COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADES TO GALE FORCE BY THU NIGHT.

FARTHER E...WLY FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN 
COAST WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM CUBA SW ACROSS 
GUATEMALA TO 12N104W PRODUCES MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE SW OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA SW 
TO JUST W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BUT IS CAUSING LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
SUSTAINED NEAR 40 KT AND SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN GALE FORCE FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HRS OR SO...DROPPING BELOW GALE BY WED MORNING. STRONG 
TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS 
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
BERG