000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020407
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 4N87W 7N98W 6N117W 4N135W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 123W..

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC FROM 30N146W 
TO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FOLLOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES 
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA AND NWRN MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW S 
OF THE RIDGE TO 23N140W...AND THEN TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 
14N150W. AT THE SURFACE...NLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OFF THE BAJA 
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. 1030 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N132W...WITH BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES TO THE S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER 
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING 
INTO THE W COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DIMINISHING TRADE WIND FLOW 
BY MIDWEEK S OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRES. BY LATE 
WEEK...BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS ARE SHOWING THIS TROUGH DEEPENING 
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING THE TROUGH BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 
15N121W BY LATE IN THE WEEK. EITHER WAY...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND E PAC ALONG 32N BEHIND SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE W 
COAST...INCREASING ELY FLOW.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...OBSERVATIONS FROM COATZACOALCOS 
(MMMT)...ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS AND IXTEPEC 
(MMIT) ON THE PACIFIC SIDE ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 
KT THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AT MMMT WERE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SUPPORT 
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. GFS SHOWS THIS 
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY STARTING 
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF 
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH MID WEEK HOWEVER.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG ELY FLOW OVER CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING 
AT LEAST FRESH ELY WINDS OVER PAPAGAYO AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEK.  


$$
CHRISTENSEN