000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 6N105W 7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 4.6N79.9W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NE PAC FROM 30N146W 
TO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FOLLOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES 
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA AND NWRN MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW S 
OF THE RIDGE TO 23N140W...AND THEN TO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 
14N150W. AT THE SURFACE...NLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OFF THE BAJA 
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. 1030 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N132W...WITH BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES TO THE S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER 
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING 
INTO THE W COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DIMINISHING TRADE WIND FLOW 
BY MIDWEEK S OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRES. BY LATE 
WEEK...BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS ARE SHOWING THIS TROUGH DEEPENING 
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING THE TROUGH BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 
15N121W BY LATE IN THE WEEK. EITHER WAY...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND E PAC ALONG 32N BEHIND SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE W 
COAST...INCREASING ELY FLOW.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...OBSERVATIONS FROM COATZACOALCOS 
(MMMT)...ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS ARE SHOWING 
SUSTAINED 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS 
INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS 
OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. GFS SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THROUGH 
TONIGHT...AND DIMINISHING GRADUALLY STARTING TOMORROW AS HIGH 
PRES TO THE N WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF ADVANCING UPPER 
TROUGH. STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK 
HOWEVER.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG ELY FLOW OVER CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING 
AT LEAST FRESH ELY WINDS OVER PAPAGAYO AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEEK.  


$$
CHRISTENSEN