000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011529 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JAN 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 6N105W 7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 7N TO 8N FROM 122W TO 129W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AND WILL MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOUR. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OVER THIS SAME AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME AND WILL CONTINUE THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART FOR SOME TIME. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF AND WILL LINGER IN THIS AREA FOR SOME TIME. AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS AN AREA OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF MEXICO. ANOTHER ALREADY CUTOFF SHORTWAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N147W AND THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF 130W. SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 18N WEST OF 136W. SURFACE... STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED. EXTENSIVE AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED WEST OF 105W. AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IS NOTED NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 103W. GAP WINDS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST THAT A MINIMAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE SHOULD BEGIN TODAY AND END IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BRISK ELY WINDS OVER W CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NE-E WINDS IN THE AND JUST SW OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT AND CONTINUE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ LL