000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 7N109W 7N110W 7N131W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 5N E OF 82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 9N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ROUGHLY NE-SW FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO 
THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS...TO NEAR 20N112W. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR 
BEHIND THE TROUGH IS KEEPING SKIES CLOUD FREE OVER BAJA AND THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS S OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND 
OFF CABO CORRIENTES THIS MORNING REPORTED FRESH TO STRONG NLY 
WINDS CONTINUING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA WILL PLUNGE SE INTO NW MEXICO THROUGH 
MON...INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MMMT ON THE GULF 
OF MEXICO SIDE AND AT MMIT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS 
ARE REPORTING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. NO OVER WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE 
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD BE 
INCREASING TO 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. 
THESE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN MEXICO SHIFTS 
E...THEN WEAKEN STARTING BY MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE N 
DIMINISHES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN SEA 
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE SAME IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA TO 90W 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO LATE IN THE 
WEEK.

FURTHER W...DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 9N120W TO 29N135W. 
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE RIDGE AND E OF HAWAII NEAR 
18N145W. UPPER DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ W OF 133W. AT THE 
SURFACE...1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N132W. FRESH TO 
STRONG ELY TRADES PERSIST S OF THE SFC HIGH. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE 
WILL WEAKEN AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA DIGS 
SE...ALLOWING TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. 
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO LATE WEEK HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL BUILD 
AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC...ALLOWING INCREASED NELY WINDS W OF 130W. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN