000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310403
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 4N89W 8N106W 6N122W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE 
EPAC THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH 
OVER ERN NEW MEXICO/W TEXAS...THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
BAJA...TO AROUND 120W. W OF THIS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
ROUGHLY ALONG 130W...AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PAC NEAR 148W. AT THE SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED IS NEAR 32N132W. MORNING QUIKSCAT SHOWED FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES ACTIVE S OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO AROUND 5N. WEAK 
1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG ITCZ NEAR 8N106W. MINOR CONVECTION 
NEAR 12N105W WHERE SLY WINDS ON E SIDE OF LOW ARE CONVERGING 
WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND STILL ACTIVE BUT WEAKENING REMNANT BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO JUST N OF THE LOW. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO SHOWED 
FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO AREA OUT TO 90W. FURTHER 
N...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER NRN MEXICO...BAJA...AND 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCED FLOW AND CYCLONIC 
TURNING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING OUT 
OF THE SRN ROCKIES. 

LOOKING AHEAD...UPPER TROUGH ALONG 148W WILL SPLIT...WITH SRN 
PORTION CUTTING OFF E OF HAWAII NEAR 144W. THE NRN PORTION WILL 
SLIDE N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA SUN 
AND MON...THEN CUTOFF OVER SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO TUE. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING FRESH NLY FLOW TO EPAC 
WATERS OFF BAJA AND IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING MON. 
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE 
SUN/EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILD BEHIND FRONT IN WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. PERSISTENT STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP 
FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO AREA AS WELL THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN