000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N83W 8N106W 6N129W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W 
AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE 
EPAC THIS AFTERNOON. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH 
OVER ERN NEW MEXICO/W TEXAS...THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
BAJA...TO AROUND 120W. W OF THIS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
ROUGHLY ALONG 130W...AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PAC NEAR 148W. AT THE SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED IS NEAR 32N132W. MORNING QUIKSCAT SHOWED FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES ACTIVE S OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO AROUND 5N. WEAK 
1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG ITCZ NEAR 8N106W. MINOR CONVECTION 
NEAR 12N105W WHERE SLY WINDS ON E SIDE OF LOW ARE CONVERGING 
WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND STILL ACTIVE BUT WEAKENING REMNANT BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO JUST N OF THE LOW. MORNING 
QUIKSCAT ALSO SHOWS FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO AREA OUT TO 
90W. FURTHER N...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER NRN 
MEXICO...BAJA...AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOW ENHANCED FLOW AND 
CYCLONIC TURNING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING 
EXTENDING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. 

LOOKING AHEAD...UPPER TROUGH ALONG 148W WILL SPLIT...WITH SRN 
PORTION CUTTING OFF E OF HAWAII NEAR 144W. THE NRN PORTION WILL 
SLIDE N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA SUN 
AND MON...THEN CUTOFF OVER SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO TUE. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING FRESH NLY FLOW TO EPAC 
WATERS OFF BAJA AND IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING MON. 
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE 
SUN/EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILD BEHIND FRONT IN WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. PERSISTENT STRONG ELY WINDS OVER CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP 
FRESH ELY WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO AREA AS WELL THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN