000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300405
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
001800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 4N77W 9N101W 7N115W 6N114W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
6N TO 7N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED ISOLATED WITHIN 45 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ENTRAINING ALONG W SIDE OF ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL 
CUT OFF LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR EL PASO TEXAS. SURFACE TROUGH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ANALYZED S OF CABO SAN 
LUCAS...EXTENDING FROM MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N107W TO 17N117W TO 
16N130W. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS MODERATED ENOUGH TO 
ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT...ALTHOUGH REMNANT LARGE NW 
SWELL PERSISTS N OF 23N W OF 128W. 

FURTHER W N OF 15N...BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W IS SUPPORTING 
1027 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N125W. MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS HINTS THAT 
FRESH TO STRONG NELY TRADES PERSIST S OF THE SFC HIGH...W OF 
120W. STRONG UPPER LOW N OF HAWAII IS PUSHING E...REINFORCING 
UPPER TROUGH W OF UPPER RIDGE ALONG 143W. 

MEANWHILE FURTHER S...1010 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
9N103W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. A SHIP OBSERVATIONS NW OF THIS LOW FROM EARLIER THIS 
EVENING ARE SHOWING ELY WINDS AT 20 KT DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT TIGHT 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N...ENHANCING 
TRADE FLOW.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS REINFORCING 
UPPER TROUGH IN CENTRAL PACIFIC SPLITTING ON SAT...CUTTING OFF E 
OF HAWAII ALONG 147W BY SUN. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W SHIFTS E 
TO 120W AND FLATTENS...AS NORTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH 
SHIFTS INTO THE ERN PAC N OF 30N. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 
SURGE OF NLY WINDS NEAR BAJA BY LATE SUN AS TROUGH DIGS INTO SRN 
CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP 
PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ACTIVE AT LEAST INTO SUN. LOOKING FURTHER 
AHEAD...WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY PICK UP EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY 
BUILDING HIGH PRES.
$$

CHRISTENSEN