000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261601 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE DEC 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS 7N78W 4N103W 5N118W 5N140W. SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N81W 3N85W AND 7N119W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO ... DRAWING DRY STABLE AIR S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. FURTHER W ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG 136W N OF 24N. UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 122W. 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 25N127W AND A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE W IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SWLY FLOW N OF 24N W OF 135W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE E SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. QUIKSCAT IS INDICATING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BUT NO SUPPORTING SHIP OBS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL SHIFT FURTHER E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...GALE FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END WED NIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN THE W GULF. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE OVER 122W WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH NEAR 140W LIFTS OUT N OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR 134W BY MIDDAY THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE DESERT SW AND INTO NRN MEXICO. MAIN IMPACT THE SURFACE OF THESE SHIFTS WILL BE CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY BETWEEN 7N AND 20N AND W OF 120W. $$ MUNDELL