000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N77W 5N96W 8N123W 5N135W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N112W TO 
8N121W TO 10N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 8N135W AND 8N136W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N126W WITH AN AXIS NE TO 
THE SW US TONIGHT REFUSED TO BUDGE. STRONG WLY FLOW CROSSING NW 
CORNER OF REGION TRYING TO ERODE RIDGE N OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A 1024 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 21N123W AND WAS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 8N TO 14N W OF 110W. A COLD 
FRONT WAS NEAR THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE REGION AND SW WINDS 
OF 20 KT WERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 134W. A GALE HAS 
COMMENCED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS VERIFIED BY SSMI AND 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO ERODE 
THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 30N WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING 
E WELL N OF THE REGION ALONG 132W. OVER OUR REGION THE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE HOLDS ON NEAR 22N128W AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ALONG 20N. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER N WILL BRUSH BY THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 20 KT AND NW SWELL OF 12 TO 
14 FT. IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC A GALE WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 
BUILDING 12 TO 15 FT. GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IT'S WAY INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN.  WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST MOSTLY NWLY 10 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE N OF THE REGION WILL DIVE SE AND 
LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 120W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES 
SLOWLY WWD TO 22N132W AND BEGINS TO BUILD AN AXIS NWD ALONG 
135W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT BRUSHING TO NRN 
PORTION OF THE REGION WILL RACE INLAND OVER NRN BAJA. N AND NW 
WINDS TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT..MAINLY N OF 27N E OF 130W. 
MOST OF THE NW SWELL 12 FT OR GREATER WILL REMAIN N OF OF 30N 
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA COAST 
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT 
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION. NE TRADES ALSO WILL INCREASE 
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 120W. THE GALE IN 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO DECREASES. WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT COULD STILL BE A 
FACTOR DAY 2 WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT. GAP WINDS W OF 
EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA WILL REMAIN NELY AND GUSTY TO 25 KT.

$$
RRG