000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 5N84W 6N109W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND 
SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...DRAWING DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS N OF 19N E OF 111W. 
FURTHER W...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA ALONG 138W N OF 24N. UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS BETWEEN THESE 
FEATURES WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 125W. 1027 MB SURFACE RIDGE N OF 
THE AREA IS SHIFTING S TO 28N125W THROUGH TONIGHT. TIGHT 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND APPROACHING FRONT TO THE 
W IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG SWLY FLOW N OF 24N W OF 135W. 
SIMILARLY FRESH NLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ON THE E SIDE OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWS FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. OVER THE TROPICAL N 
PACIFIC S OF 10N...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 7N120W IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ. 

LOOKING AHEAD...THE TROUGH ACROSS BAJA WILL SHIFT E OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...THIS 
WILL PUSH HIGH PRES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND RESULT IN GALE 
FORCE GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING TONIGHT 
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BRING 
STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS TOMORROW AND WED. MEANWHILE...RIDGE OVER 125W WILL WEAKEN 
AND SHIFT SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROUGH NEAR 140W 
LIFTS OUT AND SHIFTS E TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BE 
NEAR 134W BY MIDDAY THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE 
DESERT SW AND INTO NRN MEXICO. MAIN IMPACT THE SURFACE OF THESE 
SHIFTS WILL BE CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY 
BETWEEN 7N AND 20N AND W OF 120W. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN