000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N78W 4N86W 6N105W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 
5N79W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 114W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
TWO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRESENT. ONE IS A DEEP TROUGH 
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG NWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH IS SENDING AN AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SRN BAJA. THE OTHER 
FEATURE IS A STATIONARY RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N124W. A SUBTROPICAL 
JET EXTENDS FROM 10N120W ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS LOCATED BETWEEN 
8N AND 15N W OF 120W. A FRONT IN THE EXTREME NW CORNER LACKS UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA OTHER THAN 
INCREASED NW SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL INITIATE A GALE WIND EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME FRAME. GALES EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 
16 FT NEAR THE COAST WITH SWELLS SPREADING OUTWARD IN WSW DIRECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PRODUCE 
20 TO 30 KT GAP WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT W OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA...INCLUDING GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO.

$$
MUNDELL