000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 4N86W 7N108W 5N121W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 7N79W AND 
6N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 7N112W TO 6N123W TO 6N136W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

TWO STRONG MID LEVEL FEATURES DOMINATE THE SCENE TONIGHT. ONE IS 
A LARGE TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. IT'S 
STRONG NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS IS SENDING AN AREA OF VERY DRY 
AIR ALOFT SWD OVER BAJA TONIGHT. THE OTHER FEATURE IS A LARGE 
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N126W THAT IS STATIONARY. A 
STRONG JETSTREAM BETWEEN 30N AND 40N W OF 145W IS DIVING SE THEN 
TURN NELY AS IT RIDES OVER THE BLOCKING RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A 1026 MB HIGH WAS NEAR 30N124W PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 
20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W. A COLD FRONT WAS 
APPROACHING THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SWLY 
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT N OF 28N W OF 136W. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL THE MID 
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WLY. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 
15 TO 20 KT WHILE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ 
NW WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN OCCURING. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PICTURE AT MID LEVELS 
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING STATIONARY. MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS OVER 
THE EXTREME NW CORNER WON'T ALLOW MUCH SWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD 
FRONT. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN N 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING OVER MEXICO AS THE 
STRONG TROUGH EXITS EWD. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS SW TO NEAR 
23N128W WHILE THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WLY N OF 
27N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING AGAIN 
WITH WINDS OF 20 KT AND NW SWELL OF 12 TO 15 FT FOLLOWING. A 
GALE WITH WINDS TO 45 KT GETS UNDER WAY THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. NE TRADES DECREASE DAY 2 AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER WEAKENS TO 1023 MB.

$$
RRG