000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N90W 6N110W 5N130W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 
111W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N MEXICO N OF 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 
115W WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 122W.  
AT THE SURFACE... A 1025 MB HIGH IS NEAR 33N124W. FRESH NE 
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED S OF 20N W OF 120W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NLY 15 TO 20 KT. WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 
KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

EXPECT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER MEXICO TO MOVE E 
TO 95W WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS TO ALONG 120W BY 
TOMORROW NIGHT.  STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE EXPECT... THE HIGH TO DRIFT 
TO 32N122W MAINTAINING NE TRADES TO 25 KT BETWEEN 6N AND 18N W 
OF 118W. SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 135W 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GULF OF CALIF WINDS WILL REMAIN 
STEADY.  GAP WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO A 45 KT GALE IN 24 HOURS.  GAP WINDS W OF 
NICARAGUA WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT. 

$$
FORMOSA