000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N100W 5N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W 
OF 120W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
TWO STRONG LARGE SCALE FEATURES DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS THIS 
EVENING. ONE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER N MEXICO N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 115W WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AND THE 
OTHER IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W 
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 124W.  AT THE SURFACE... A 1027 MB HIGH IS 
NEAR 32N125W. FRESH NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED S OF 
20N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NLY 15 TO 20 
KT. WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS 
ARE LIGHT.

EXPECT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER MEXICO TO MOVE E 
TO 97W WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS TO ALONG 120W BY 
TOMORROW EVENING.  STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE EXPECT... THE HIGH TO DRIFT 
TO 32N122W MAINTAINING NE TRADES TO 25 KT BETWEEN 6N AND 18N W 
OF 118W. SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 135W 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GULF OF CALIF WINDS WILL REMAIN 
STEADY.  GAP WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO A 45 KT GALE IN 30 HOURS.  GAP WINDS W OF 
NICARAGUA WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT. 

$$
FORMOSA