000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N80W 5N88W 8N103W 4N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 3N78W 3N79W 4N82W 7N79W 7N82W AND 
7N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 4N121W AND 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N128W TO 5N132W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N138W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

TWO STRONG LARGE SCALE FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. 
ONE IS A CLOSED OFF TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND THE OTHER A RIDGE 
CENTERED ALONG 127W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1027 MB HIGH WAS 
NEAR 31N127W. NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT WERE CONFINED TO S OF 20N 
W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE NLY 15 TO 20 KT 
ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT. WINDS INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT 
FROM JUST OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF BAJA SW TO 20N120W. GAP WINDS 
WERE MOSTLY LIGHT.

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG TROUGH OVER MEXICO BEGINS TO MOVE EWD 
WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 24N125W. STRONG SWLY 
FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 A 1026 MB HIGH DRIFTS TO 30N126W MAINTAINING NE 
TRADES TO 25 KT BETWEEN 8N AND 15N W OF 120W. SWLY WINDS 
INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N W OF 135W AS A FRONT APPROACHES. 
BAJA WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WHILE GAP WINDS ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT 
TO MODERATE. 

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E INTO THE WRN GULF 
OF MEXICO WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 20N125W. 
STRONG WLY FLOW BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE NW CORNER OF 
THE REGION BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IS KEPT WELL N OF THE AREA BY 
THE STRONG RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2..CHRISTMAS DAY..THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO 1024 MB AND DRIFTS TO NEAR 
30N122W. NE TRADES TO 25 KT CONFINED TO A SMALLER AREA BETWEEN 
9N AND 14N W OF 120W. SW WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
REGION WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT. BAJA WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT 
WITH THE HIGH SO CLOSE BUT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF THE 
PENINSULA ALONG 110W. WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC TO 
25 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. GAP 
WINDS W OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA ALSO INCREASE TO NELY 20 
KT. 

$$
RRG