000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240400
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 7N98W 4N119W 4N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W TO 85W AND 125W TO 140W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING N ALONG 130W N OF 
16N. THIS IS ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE WEST 
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR 13N108W...WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE 
SW JET BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS WEAKENED WITH LESS MOISTURE 
BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY 
STABLE AIR DOMINATES N OF 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W AND E OF 95W.

SURFACE FEATURES...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NEAR 
32N126W.  MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS OF UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING 
SOUTH OF THE HIGH.  THESE ARE PRODUCING STEEP NE WIND WAVES OVER 
12 FT IN HEIGHT AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELL WHICH IS 
SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.  THE GFS-BASED SURFACE 
WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT UNDERESTIMATED IN COMPARISON WITH 
QUIKSCAT...SSMI...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS.  MODERATE N WINDS ALSO 
HAVE BEEN PERSISTING TODAY BOTH JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO BOTH THE STRONG HIGH 
MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED 
STATES...AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THESE 
MODERATE WINDS NEAR BAJA SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY.
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 
DAY AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO.  HOWEVER...A TEHUANTEPEC WIND 
EVENT SHOULD BEGIN BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE 
ALL AGGRESSIVE ON THIS EVENT WITH AT LEAST 40 KT OF WIND.  THE 
NOGAPS IS AN OUTLIER WITH LITTLE OR NO GALES PREDICTED.  GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

$$
LANDSEA