000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 7N78W 6N100W 5N110W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING N ALONG 132W N OF 
20N. THIS IS ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE WEST 
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR 14N111W...WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE 
SW JET BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS WEAKENED WITH LESS MOISTURE 
BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY 
STABLE AIR DOMINATES N OF 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W AND E OF 95W.

SURFACE FEATURES...A 1030 SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NEAR 29N128W.  
MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS OF UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE 
HIGH.  THESE ARE PRODUCING STEEP NE WIND WAVES OVER 12 FT IN 
HEIGHT AND ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELL WHICH IS SPREADING 
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.  THE GFS-BASED SURFACE WINDS 
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT UNDERESTIMATED IN COMPARISON WITH 
QUIKSCAT...SSMI...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS.  MODERATE N WINDS ALSO 
HAVE BEEN PERSISTING TODAY BOTH JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO BOTH THE STRONG HIGH 
MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED 
STATES...AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.  THESE 
MODERATE WINDS NEAR BAJA SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 
36 HOURS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO. THE EARLIER SUGGESTION FROM 
THE GFS/NAM OF INITIATING A GAP FLOW IN PAPAGAYO HAS NOW BACKED 
OFF FROM THE GFS...THOUGH THE NAM STILL BRINGS SOME 20 KT NE 
WINDS INTO THE AREA.  IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT A TEHUANTEPEC WIND 
EVENT BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GALE CONDITIONS THERE MAY OCCUR TUESDAY 
AND WEDNESDAY. 

$$
LANDSEA