000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N78W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 120W-139W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING N ALONG 132W N OF 20N. 
THIS IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM NEW MEXICO TO NEAR 14N111W...WHILE 
ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC EXTENDING N THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THE SW JET BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS WEAKENED WITH LESS 
MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY 
STABLE AIR DOMINATES N OF 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W AND E OF 100W.

SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR 30N128W. FRESH TRADE 
WINDS S OF THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STEEP NE WIND WAVES THAT 
ARE MIXING WITH THE LARGE NW SWELL SPREADING SE THROUGH THE AREA. OBS
OFF NORTH CENTRAL BAJA REVEALED THE RECENT SURGE HAS INCREASED NLY 
WINDS TO 20-30 KT. GFS 10M WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH 
THIS EVENT...WHILE THE 30M SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE BETTER. THESE WINDS
ARE SPREADING INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THOUGH BOTH AREAS EXPECTED 
TO RELAX A BIT INTO SUN. APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED SW 
FLOW IN FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUN THEN DIMINISHES 
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO. GFS/NAM ARE PAINTING SOME 20-25 KT 
WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE NOT BOUGHT OFF ON 
THIS YET AS IT SEEMS BASED ON A WEAK SFC LOW FORMING S OF THE NICOYA 
PENINSULA OF COSTA RICA...AND HAVE NOT SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS YET.  
STILL ANTICIPATING NEXT TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT BY CHRISTMAS MORNING 
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS IS A 
LITTLE SLOWER AT INITIATING THE EVENT THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW 
RUNS...WHICH NOW HAS WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE BY EARLY TUE. 

$$
MUNDELL