000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N100W 6N120W 6N140W. 
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN 150NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 77W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 120W-123W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 
126W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXTENDING N ALONG 132W N OF 
20N. THIS IS ADVECTING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM NEW MEXICO 
TO 14N111W...WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC 
EXTENDING N THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SW JET BETWEEN THESE 
FEATURES HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MUCH 
LESS MOISTURE NOW BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC TO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR DOMINATES N OF 14N BETWEEN 
105W AND 130W...AND E OF 100W. 

SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR 30N128W. FRESH 
TRADE FLOW S OF THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STEEP NE WIND 
WAVES THAT ARE MIXING WITH THE LARGE NW SWELL SPREADING SE 
THROUGH THE AREA. 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBS OFF OF NORTH 
AND CENTRAL BAJA REVEALED THE RECENT SURGE HAS INCREASED NLY 
WINDS TO 20-30 KT. BOTH GFS/NAM 10M WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE 
UNDERDONE WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE 30M SOLUTIONS REFLECT 
REALITY A LITTLE BETTER. THESE WINDS ARE NOW SPREADING INTO THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THOUGH BOTH AREAS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT 
INTO SUN. APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING INCREASING SW FLOW 
TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUN THAT 
DIMINISHES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE NEXT 
ROUND OF MODERATE TO STRONG...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO SPREAD 
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 
36 HOURS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO. GFS/NAM ARE PAINTING SOME 
20-25 KT WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SUN...BUT HAVE NOT 
BOUGHT OFF ON THIS YET AS IT SEEMS BASED ON A WEAK SFC LOW 
FORMING S OF THE NICOYA PENINSULA OF COSTA RICA...AND HAVE NOT 
SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS YET.  STILL ANTICIPATING NEXT TEHUANTEPEC 
WIND EVENT BY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT INITIATING 
THE EVENT THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW RUNS...WHICH NOW HAS 
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE BY EARLY TUE. 

$$
WILLIS