000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N78W 8N100W 7N110W 6N130W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 129W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGES ARE AT 17N135W AND 9N89W WITH A 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN BETWEEN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE 
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND MEXICO.  LESS MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN WAS 
APPARENT YESTERDAY AND THE JET CORE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY 
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC.  WHILE THE WESTERNMOST UPPER HIGH 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR EXIST UPSTREAM OF THE 
TROUGH AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERNMOST UPPER HIGH. 

SURFACE FEATURES...A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N125W WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE.  EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH...EAST TO 
NORTHEAST TRADES REMAIN BRISK WITH WINDS 20-25 KT.  THE HIGH IN 
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW 
U.S. IS PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
BOTH REGIONS OF ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SEE SOME 
SLACKENING OF THE WINDS BY TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
RELAXES. WAVE HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 10 FEET DOMINATE THE REGION 
GENERALLY NORTH OF 8N AND WEST OF 120W.  WAVES SOUTH OF 20N ARE 
PRIMARILY WIND WAVES WITH PEAK SWELL DIRECTION FROM THE 
NE...WHILE NORTH OF 20N NW SWELLS PREVAIL.
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO.  HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY 
EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INITIATE A TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT.
WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

$$
LANDSEA/RUBIO