000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 7N90W 6N100W 6N110W 7N120W 7N130W 
6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGES ARE AT 17N135W AND 9N89W WITH A 
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN BETWEEN EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE 
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND MEXICO.  LESS MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN WAS 
APPARENT YESTERDAY AND THE JET CORE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY 
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC.  WHILE THE WESTERNMOST UPPER HIGH 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RENEWED CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR EXIST UPSTREAM OF THE 
TROUGH AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERNMOST UPPER HIGH. 

SURFACE FEATURES...A 1029 MB HIGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY AROUND 30N130W...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A FEW 
MB.  EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH...EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADES REMAIN 
BRISK WITH WINDS 20-30 KT.  A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE 
REGION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICO-CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WINDS 
HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.  BOTH AREAS SHOULD 
EXPERIENCE WEAKENING WINDS BY TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
RELAXES. WAVE HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 10 FEET DOMINATE THE REGION 
GENERALLY NORTH OF 8N AND WEST OF 120W.  WAVES SOUTH OF 20N ARE 
PRIMARILY WIND WAVES WITH PEAK SWELL DIRECTION FROM THE 
NE...WHILE NORTH OF 20N NW SWELLS PREVAIL.
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO.  HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY 
EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INITIATE A TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT.

$$
LANDSEA/RUBIO