000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N78W 4N100W 4N110W 8N125W 6N140W.  THE 
ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ OCCURS BETWEEN 126W TO 
134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM 
THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TO 18N128W.  A 
QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 12N FROM 85W TO 115W.  A 
JET WITH PEAK WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO 
FEATURES AND IS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER HIGH...EXTENSIVE DRY AND 
STABLE AIR DOMINATES.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...THE 
JET CORE WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

SURFACE FEATURES...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS AT 29N129W SHOULD 
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  MODERATELY 
STRONG NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 10 AND 20N... 
PRIMARILY WEST OF 120W.  THESE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING.  THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF WINDS 
OF 20 KT IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS OUT OF THE 
NORTHWEST.  THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 36 AND 48 
HOURS...CAUSING A RESUMPTION OF LOCAL HIGH SEAS.
 
GAP WINDS...
NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT 
TWO DAYS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO.  HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY 
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO MAY INITIATE A TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT.

$$
RUBIO/LANDSEA