000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU DEC 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 8N85W 7N100W 7N140W. THE ONLY ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ OCCURS BETWEEN 125W TO 135W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TO 18N128W. A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 12N FROM 85W TO 115W. A JET WITH PEAK WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXISTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND IS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE WESTWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER HIGH...EXTENSIVE DRY AND STABLE AIR DOMINATES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...THE JET CORE WILL ALSO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE FEATURES...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS AT 29N127W SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MODERATELY STRONG NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 10 AND 20N...PRIMARILY WEST OF 120W. THESE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING. A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR 8N126W ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING CURRENTLY AND NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF WINDS OF 20-25 KT IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING RELATIVE HIGH SEAS FOR THE GULF. GAP WINDS... NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AT TEHUANTEPEC OR PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY INITIATE A TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT. $$ RUBIO/LANDSEA