000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 7N85W 6N100W 7N110W 7N130W 8N140W.  
NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ALONG ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30110W TO 
20N130W. A MID TO UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 10N100W. STRONG SW TO W 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES BRINGING 
EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MEXICO. THE JETSTREAM IS ALONG 
13N130W TO BEYOND 21N105W. EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE AIR CONTINUES 
OVER THE TROPICS S 12N E OF 105W. 

SURFACE FEATURES...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR 
30N127W. FRESH TRADE FLOW ON THE SRN PORTION OF THIS HIGH 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LARGE...STEEP WIND WAVES IN THE REGION 
BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF 120W. LARGE...LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IS 
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL 
CONTINUE BUILDING AND SPREADING SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUIKSCAT 
PASS SHOWED NW/N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. SEAS WILL BE LARGEST 
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AT THE TAIL END OF 
THE EFFECTIVE FETCH. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
THROUGH TOMORROW. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 122W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ REMAINS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH SUN. GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING NEXT 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL START EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. FUTURE 
FORECAST PACKAGES WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

$$
FORMOSA