000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 3N90W 7N110W 8N125W 8N140W. VERY 
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 77W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED FROM 10N-13N 
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30115W TO 17N140W. A 
MID TO UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 12N106W. STRONG SW TO W WINDS ARE 
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES BRINGING EXTENSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO 
N AMERICA. THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 12N140W 
APPEARS TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET. 
EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE AREA E OF 
105W. 

SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR 30N128W. FRESH 
TRADE FLOW ON THE SRN PORTION OF THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
LARGE...STEEP WIND WAVES IN THE REGION BETWEEN 10N-20N W OF 
120W. LARGE...LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE BUILDING AND 
SPREADING SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0100 UTC 
SHOWED NW/N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHICH 
WAS SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. SEAS WILL BE LARGEST NEAR 
THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AT THE TAIL END OF THE 
EFFECTIVE FETCH. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 
TOMORROW. SFC TROUGH ALONG 120W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ REMAINS 
VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH SUN. GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING NEXT 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL START EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. FUTURE 
FORECAST PACKAGES WILL NEED TO REVISIT THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

$$
WILLIS