000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG ALONG 4N77W 5N100W 9N110W 8N125W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 128W...AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

QUASI-STATIONARY 1029 MB SFC HIGH PRES JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 
32N132W MAINTAINS FRESH TRADE FLOW TO ITS S...MAINLY FROM 5N TO 
25N W OF 110W. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG 
WAVE WAVES IN THE VICINITY WHICH WILL MIX WITH SMALLER...LONGER 
PERIOD NW AND SW SWELL EVENTS. A STRONGER NW SWELL WILL SPREAD 
THROUGH THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. 00 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT WHICH AGREED WELL WITH 
THE 30M GFS INITIALIZATION. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO RELAX BEYOND 
24 HOURS. 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS EXPECTED GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS EXPECTED 
TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS TO 20 KT. OTHER MENTIONABLE SFC 
FEATURES THIS MORNING INCLUDE THE PAIR OF TROUGHS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 112W AND 123W. THESE WILL CONTINUE MOVING 
W TO NEAR 119W AND 130W RESPECTIVELY THROUGH 24 HOURS. 

AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 125W AND 140W AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL 
FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER LOW OVER 
SW CALIFORNIA THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO NEAR 15N120W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO 
ITS E IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG 112W. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO 
SPREADING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SW TO NE THROUGH CENTRAL 
AND NRN MEXICO...AND INTO WRN TEXAS. MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 100W 
CONTINUES TO SEE DRY STABLE AIR IN PLACE WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION 
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 


$$
WILLIS