000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 7N105W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM OF 5N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N123W 6N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 8N120W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 15N117W BUT RAPIDLY ERODING AS A RIGOROUS 
SHORTWAVE ALONG 32N123W 10N136W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
ENHANCED BETWEEN 120W AND 140W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 5N140W 7N130W 
10N120W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 300 NM OF 
LINE 14N140W 17N128W 30N100W 31N88W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST ALONG 
POINTS 19N109W 25N103W 27N102W. CONVECTION ALONG THE E PAC ITCZ 
IS SUPPRESSED E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR 10N104W 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 13N101W 4N106W. A 
MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
11N105W 19N98W. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER IS NEAR 5N80W. OTHERWISE 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE TROPICS E OF 110W. 

LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N140W 1033 MB RIDGING 
SE TO NEAR 23N113W THROUGH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 
32N114W 25N121W.

GAP WINDS...NLY WIND TO 20 KT PRESENTLY IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. ENE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO SPREAD W AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 
KT MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUE.

$$
NELSON