000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 8N100W 7N112W 6N125W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE AXIS W OF 
125W.

...DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION 
SUPPORTING A DYING COLD FRONT. A NEAR 100 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SE OF THIS TROUGH AND LIES ALONG 24N140W 
28N128W 31N118W ENTERING THE SW U.S.. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 10N125W NEWD TO SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. DRY UPPER AIR 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO 25N...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA AND SEA OF CORTEZ. JUST EAST OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT GOES FROM 20N106W TO 5N110W. SWLY WINDS OF 
NEAR 70 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PAC NEAR 10N90W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N120W THEN CONTINUES 
SW TO 23N130W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
ARE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING THE NW PORTION OF THE 
REGION. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 113/114W FROM 2N TO 
10N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING WWD AT AROUND
20 KT. STRONG SFC RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF N OF 15N W OF 
110W GENERATING STRONG NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND HIGH SEAS TO 
16 FT.

GAP WINDS...NLY WIND TO 20 KT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 KT IN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS AND SPREAD WWD TO NEAR 10N91W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
GR