000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N93W 6N105W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM 4N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 6.5N109W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 138W AND WITHIN 60 NM 11N139W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N124W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO FLAT CREST ALONG 31N BETWEEN 119W AND 102W. AN 
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N128W 27N140W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING 
SW ALONG 30N98W 23N107W 20N114W 13N123W. THE AXIS OF A 150 NM 
WIDE OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED ALONG 28N140W 32N126W WITH DRY 
UPPER AIR SLIPPING SE INTO THE NW PORTION N OF THE MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED N OF A LINE ALONG 18N140W 
17N130W 12N122W 24N100W. 

A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 9N130W WITH A RIDGE N TO NEAR 
16N130W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
W OF 126W WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING 
UNDER THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N114W TO 19N102W WHERE IT 
EVAPORATES. TRANSVERSE CLOUD BANDING INDICATING UPPER LEVEL 
TURBULENCE IS NOTED ALONG THE PLUME S OF 15N. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PAC  
NEAR 11N110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS 
ALONG 7N E OF 110W. A SMALL MOISTURE PLUME LIES WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N90W 15N90W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE 
DRY OVER THE TROPICS E OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...NLY WIND TO 20 KT PRESENTLY IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ABOUT 42 HOURS. NE WINDS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATER TODAY AND SPREAD 
W TO NEAR 10N90W AND PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON