000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160904 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT DEC 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N95W 6N110W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 130W TO 135W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 135W TO 139W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA TO NEAR 10N130W. THE RIDGE IS BEING FLATTENED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FROM 15N-30N W OF 115W. A 100-130 KT JET STREAM IS ALONG 32N W OF 123W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO SWWD THROUGH TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N117W. A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS NOTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 14N118W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N105W THEN EWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS FROM 65-90 KT. A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE JET FROM 118W TO THE W COAST OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 10N100W. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT ELY TRADES W OF AROUND 120W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 20- 30 KT BY TONIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 115W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 13N94W TO 5N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. $$ DGS