000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N90W 6N110W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF AXIS W 
OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SWWD 
THROUGH 20N115W TO 15N125W. A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM
IS NOTED SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 16N120W TO THE 
MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N105W AND EWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A CORE SPEEDS OF 100-120 KT. A 
300 NM BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS S OF THE JET AXIS. BROAD FLAT 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES 
THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE FROM 
18N TO 25N W OF 120W. AXIS OF STRONG MERGED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL 
JTST IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY FROM 34N TO 40N 
FROM THE MID-PACIFIC EWD TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 150 KT. JTST 
WAS ADVECTING COPIOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD INTO THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS OVER THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 
NEAR 8N105W. DRY AIR ALOFT/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS 
PORTION OF THE ITCZ.  

AT THE SURFACE... 
COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N
125W TO 29N140W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
4N TO 10N ALONG 102/103W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SFC TROUGH. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED THROUGH 
30N133W 22N123W TO 12N110W. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS GENERATING AN 
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADE WINDS TO 25 KT OR GREATER S 
OF THE RIDGE AND W OF 125W. WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL 
SWELL FROM LAST WEEKS STORM N OF THE AREA HAS KEPT SEAS UP TO 15 
FT OR SO OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TRADES 
MAY INCREASE SOME TO 30 KT AND GUSTY BY 48 HOURS WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 18 FT. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE 
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

$$
COBB/GR