000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N90W 6N110W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 120W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS INDICATED IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE 
RIDGE FROM 18N TO 25N W OF 120W. AXIS OF STRONG MERGED 
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
GENERALLY FROM 34N TO 40N FROM THE MID-PACIFIC EWD TO THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS 
IN EXCESS OF 150 KT. JTST WAS ADVECTING COPIOUS MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE EWD INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHEARED MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE AND EXTENDED 
FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SWWD THROUGH 21N115W TO 16N130W. 
ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS NOTED SE OF THE 
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 16N124W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 
22N105W AND EWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATED A RATHER VIGOROUS JET AS WELL WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 
100-120 KT. A 300 NM BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS S OF THE JET AXIS. 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER HONDURAS 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 8N105W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
PREVAILED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W LIMITING DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE ITCZ.  

AT THE SURFACE... 
COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N
125W TO 29N140W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 3N TO 12N ALONG 94W. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED 
THROUGH 30N133W 23N120W TO 18N110W. THE STRONG RIDGE HAS 
RESULTED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES TO 25 KT OR 
GREATER S OF THE RIDGE AND W OF 125W. WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH 
RESIDUAL SWELL FROM LAST WEEKS STORM N OF THE AREA HAS KEPT SEAS 
UP TO 15 FT OR SO OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. TRADES MAY INCREASE SOME TO 30 KT AND GUSTY BY 48 HOURS
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. 

GAP WINDS...
1138 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN 20 
AND 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

$$
COBB