000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N90W 6N102W 5N116W 8N129W 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 24N110W TO 18N135W... 
WITH DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG ITS AXIS. 80 KT JET SUBTROPICAL JET 
PERSIST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 11N...BUT WITH 
LITTLE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. THE TROUGH 
WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF STRONGER 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE FRONT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...
A 1030 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NEAR 28N135W REMAINS IN CONTROL OF 
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SFC HIGH AND A WEAK TROUGH 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 127W IS GENERATING 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS 
AND FAIRLY HIGH SEAS OVER THE AREA...IN MAINLY NW SWELL. FURTHER 
E ANOTHER TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR 92W ALONG THE ITCZ...WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL PUSH 
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING STRONG NE WINDS AND LARGE 
SWELL TO MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 121W. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT 
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS.

$$
GR