000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N92W 6N101W 11N127W 
7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W 
OF 100W  BETWEEN A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CELL NEAR 28N136W 
AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 127W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
AND QUIKSCAT ARE SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS. SHIPS ARE ALSO 
REPORTING FAIRLY HIGH SEAS OVER THE AREA...IN MAINLY NW SWELL. 
FURTHER E ANOTHER TROUGH IS EVIDENT NEAR 92W ALONG THE 
ITCZ...WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. LIGHT NOCTURNAL 
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST FROM GULF OF 
PANAMA TO GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. 
MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL PUSH INTO THE 
AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING STRONG NE WINDS AND LARGE SWELL TO 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 121W. 

ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO NEAR 
18N140W...WITH DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALONG ITS AXIS. 80 KT JET 
SUBTROPICAL JET  PERSIST BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 11N...BUT WITH LITTLE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE 
SURFACE. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AHEAD OF STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
STRONG SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN