000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140353
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 5N100W 7N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120/140 NM NORTH OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 121W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 122W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 22N125W TO 18N140W. A 
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATED THAT CORE SPEEDS ARE BETWEEN 80 TO 100 
KT. THESE WINDS AREA ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD 
THROUGH THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN CENTRAL MEXICO AND 140W. 
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 10N120W EXTENDING A RIDGE ALONG 10N W OF 
100W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 10N-88W COVERING MAINLY CENTRAL 
AMERICA. UPPER ELY FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N 
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 110W. 

MODERATE TO STRONG NW SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE AREA W OF 100W. THIS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY FRI 
BUT ANOTHER TRAIN OF LARGE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 124W FROM 4N TO 
12N...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A 1029 MB 
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. TRADE 
WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND HIGHEST SEAS TO 15 FT 
ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. THIS HIGH WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE WINDS AND 
SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 48 HRS. OTHER WIND AREA 
JUST OVER 20 KT IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ. 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THIS REGION DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
$$
GR